绿洲城市综合规模与水资源相互作用关系研究——以乌鲁木齐为例

Correlation between Comprehensive Urbanization Scale and Water Resource in Urumqi during 1995—2007

选取我国最大绿洲城市乌鲁木齐为研究对象,基于乌鲁木齐城市经济数据和水资源数据,运用灰色关联法和SPSS软件,定量研究绿洲城市综合规模与城市用水相互作用关系。结果发现:①绿洲城市综合规模发展有利于城市用水减量化。1995—2007年,乌鲁木齐城市综合规模与城市用水存在着较为复杂的二次曲线关系,绿洲城市综合规模在理论上存在阈值380(万人.亿元.km2),超过阈值,城市用水量减少;1995—2003年和2003—2007年,乌鲁木齐城市用水随城市综合规模发展存在着周期为3 a和1 a的波动性。②水资源对城市综合规模发展具有较强的限制作用,表现在城市人均用水量减少。1995—2007年,乌鲁木齐综合规模发展均是在中度与严重缺水状态下发展。当城市综合规模小于中等缺水与严重缺水状态理论规模时,水资源是城市发展的促进要素,当城市综合规模超过理论规模阈值时,水资源是城市发展的障碍要素。③乌鲁木齐城市用水结构不利于城市综合规模发展,城市综合规模与农业用水、工业用水和生活用水灰色关联度为0.784、0.781、0.622,农业用水过高、耗水量过大,工业耗水部门较多,加剧了城市水资源的短缺,阻碍了城市综合规模发展。最后提出了适度提高城市综合规模、提高水资源利用效率、调整产业结构和污水处理与利用等途径促进城市综合规模发展与水资源协调发展。

In this paper authors analyzed the coordination between comprehensive urbanization scale and water consumption in Urumqi during 1995—2007 by using the gray correlation analysis method,SPSS software and economic development data and water use data.The results showed that there was a quadratic relation between comprehensive urbanization scale and urban water consumption in Urumqi during 1995—2007,and there were fluctuation periods of 3-year during 1995—2003 and 1-year during 2003—2007.The development of Urumqi met moderate and severe water shortage during 1995—2007.Gray correlation coefficients between comprehensive urbanization scale and agricultural water consumption,industrial water consumption and domestic water consumption in Urumqi were 0.784,0.710 and 0.622,respectively,and agricultural water and industrial water consumption was too high,and inappropriate water consumption structure constrained the development of comprehensive urbanization scale of Urumqi.The conclusions are that water resource blocks the development of comprehensive urbanization scale,and the development of comprehensive urbanization scale is beneficial to reduction of per capita water consumption;There is a theoretically ＂threshold point＂ of comprehensive urbanization scale,and when comprehensive urbanization scale overtakes the threshold point,per capita water consumption will reduce;Water resource is a promoting factor when the urban scale is below the ＂threshold point＂ of comprehensive urbanization scale,and vice versa;Improvement of water use efficiency,sewage treatment and utilization are useful for optimization of relation between comprehensive urbanization scale and water consumption.