东部地区内外就业格局演变研究

A Study of the Evolution of Employment Patterns Within and Outside in China Eastern Region

采用生物系统论研究法,建立中国地区劳动力流动模型,并基于1978-2008年的东部地区内部及中部、西部、东北地区劳动力就业数据,运用状态空间递归参数估计法,研究东部地区内外就业格局演变。结果发现：东部正遭遇＂就业难与招工荒＂同时并存的就业迷局,其根源在于正处于劳动力自然就业相对繁荣期（2009-2013年）与拥塞现象导致了就业难;东部及其外部地区的＂三极竞争,东北独大＂就业格局引发了招工荒;当拥塞现象到2018年解除时,东部将真正进入＂劳动力危机时代＂。最后就如何破解＂劳动力危机＂困局,提出了相应对策。

Adopting biological systems research methods,constructing China＇s regional labor flow model,using state-space recursive parameter method,this paper studies the evolution of employment patterns within and outside the eastern region.The result shows that the eastern region is encoun-tering an ＂employment difficulty and job shortage＂ puzzle,which results from the fact that the eastern region is in the period of natural labor employment boom（2009~2013） and congestion which led to employment difficulty,and the eastern region is faced with the ＂tri-polar competition and dominance in Northeast＂ employment pattern which led to job shortage.When congestion phenomenon will begin to discharge in 2018,the eastern region truly enter the ＂labor crisis era＂.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures are proposed to solve the dilemma of the ＂labor crisis＂.