基于投入产出法的中国虚拟水国际贸易分析

Analysis of Chinese International Virtual Water Trade in an Input-output Method

文章引入虚拟水和虚拟水贸易的概念,基于投入产出方法,对中国虚拟水贸易进行研究分析。选取2002年、2005年和2007年相关数据,计算中国17个行业及全国的虚拟水进出口量,分析中国虚拟水进出口情况,指出中国是一个虚拟水净出口国,并且虚拟水净出口量始终处于增长状态,主要出口到美洲、欧洲和亚洲。在中国虚拟水贸易中,对虚拟水净出口贡献较大的行业为服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、纺织业、木材加工及家具制造业和农业,而对虚拟水净进口有贡献的行业为能源行业、金属矿采选业、化学工业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业,由于净出口行业基本上为耗水量比较大的行业,净进口行业耗水量相对较小,这就导致了中国虚拟水始终处于净出口状态。这些都为行业战略调整提供了一定的依据。

The article induce the concept of virtual water and virtual water trade, on the basic of input - output method, to study virtual water trade in China. Using 2002, 2005 and 2007 related data, calculate the quantity of virtual water import and export of 17 industries and China, and analyze the situation of virtual water import and export. China is a net virtual water exporter, and the quantity of virtual water net export is increasing year by year. The main regions that virtual water export to are the Ameri- cas, Europe and Asia. The most share of virtual water net expert can be attributed to the export of garment, leather, furs and re- lated products, textile, timber processing and furniture manufacturing and argrieuhure, while energy, minerals mining and dressing, chemical and instruments, meters, cultural and office machinery contribute some share of virtual water net import. Because the quantity of net export is more than that of net import, China exports virtual water continuously. It can be bases for industries strategical adjustment.