摘要
为了解金沙江流域降水变化特征,基于对金沙江流域的区划,利用1960~2006年金沙江流域28个站点的月平均降水观测资料,运用线性倾向估计方法和Morlet小波分析进行资料分析。结果表明：近47 a金沙江流域上游,中游年降水量有增加趋势,但上游和中游降水增加趋势有减弱迹象;下游降水量呈减少趋势,且减少趋势增加。通过对各区域历史曲线和降水序列的小波分析发现,金沙江流域整个区域降水序列都具有一个15 a左右的周期。研究结果可以为金沙江流域水资源规划管理提供合理的依据。
In order to understand the characteristics of precipitation change in Jinsha River Basin,based on the zoning of the basin,the historical monthly mean precipitation data of 28 stations in the basin during the period of 1960~2006 is analyzed using Morlet wavelet and linear trend evaluation.The results show that in the recent 47 years,the annual precipitation in mid-upper reaches of Jinsha River has an increasing trend,but the trend shows a sign of weakening;the annual precipitation in the lower reach decreases and the decreasing trend is strengthened.There is a main cycle of 15 years for the precipitation sequence in the whole basin.The results provide reference for reasonable planning and management of water resources in Jinsha River Basin.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2011年第5期55-58,85,共5页
Yangtze River
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCFS-09-19)
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基金项目(LPM20090017)
