经济周期波动与利率政策投资效应的非对称性

The Business Cycle and Investment Effect of Interest Rate Policy:China's Experience and Its Implication

在年度总量数据描述性统计分析和对周期阶段进行划分的基础上,本文利用我国的分省面板数据对1997～2007年时段内不同经济周期阶段的利率与投资的关系进行了实证分析,主要得到了如下结果:一是利率政策效应在经济高涨与低迷时是不同的;二是不同经济类型的投资对利率变化反应存在重大差别;三是货币政策工具的效应具有结构性。在此基础上给出了研究的政策含义。

Based on the descriptive statistical analysis on the aggregate data and the division of business cycle of China,in this paper,we makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the interest rate and investment using the province panel data in the period 1997~2007.And we get some main results.The first is that the interest rate policy effects are different in economic prosperity period and economic recession period.The second is that the interest rate effects are very different to the different economic types.The third is that different money policy structure has different effect on investment.Lastly,we give our study policy implication.