基于相空间重构的负荷动态分析

Load Dynamic Analysis Based on Phase Space Restructuring

负荷管理系统的主要目的是缓解目前电力供需紧张的矛盾。通过对负荷动态预测,优化负荷的配给,从而达到社会效益和经济效益的最佳。因此,准确地预测负荷动态变化是负荷管理的关键。针对该问题,根据实践的情况,提出了日(月)最大负荷率和日(月)最小负荷率,在此基础上,按相空间重构的负荷动态分析方法对负荷进行动态预测,模拟试验表明效果较好。

The load management system aims at alleviating the conflict between supply and demand in power supply. It strives for the best social and economic benefits by predicting the load and optimizing the load ration. Therefore, the key of load management lies in the accurate prediction of load changes. In respect to this question, we proposed the daily （and monthly） load maximum and minimum on a practical basis, and made a dynamic load prediction by phase space restructuring. Simulation test indicated that the effect was good.