经济增长、居民消费与上市公司的绩效关系——以纺织食品类上市公司为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Economic Growth,Household Consumption and Firm Performance

以纺织食品类上市公司1998—2008年的季度数据为样本,通过对数据的格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,运用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,实证分析我国经济增长、居民消费与纺织食品类上市公司业绩的动态影响关系。结果表明:我国经济增长、居民消费对纺织食品类上市公司业绩都有显著影响。其中,经济增长对该类上市公司业绩增长的贡献最大,居民消费对纺织食品类上市公司业绩的增长也具有较大作用;同时,居民消费和纺织食品类上市公司业绩对经济增长都有显著影响,且从长期看,纺织食品类上市公司业绩对于经济增长的影响更明显。

Based on the data of the Chinese textile and food listed companies from 1998 to 2008,and the Granger and Johansen test,we examined the dynamic relationship between the economic growth,the household consumption and the textile and food listed companies＇ accounting performance by vector auto-regression model,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The empirical study indicated that the above three items exert a significant effect on the listed companies＇ performances,with economic growth impacts stronger than household consumption.On the other hand,household consumption and textile and food companies＇ performance impacts on economic growth more than household consumption,especially in the long run.