摘要
文章通过建立宏观经济模型对1995—2010年间我国通货膨胀的动态走势进行了研究。结果表明:我国货币市场不仅存在实际货币需求、真实GDP和名义利率间的长期均衡关系,在贸易市场上还存在名义汇率、国内价格水平和国外价格水平之间的长期均衡关系。误差修正模型表明通货膨胀的短期波动依赖于货币供给、名义利率和实际GDP的变化,且具有很强的通货膨胀惯性,货币市场和贸易市场非均衡对通货膨胀的变化也有重要影响。
This paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation in China during the period of 1995 -2010, applying cointegration and error correction modeling. The empirical results, based on quarterly data, confirm that there exists a stable money demand relationship, as well as a purchasing power relashionship in the long run. The two both enter the short - run dynamics of inflation. We also find that short - run dynamics of inflation depends on the changes of money supply, nominal interest and real GDP and inflation inertia is important.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2011年第4期66-69,共4页
East China Economic Management
