随机货币冲击下的中国经济波动研究——基于RBC模型

A Research into Chinese Economic Fluctuation in the Stochastic Monetary Shock

中国居民消费存在明显的现金先行约束。在真实经济周期(RBC)模型中通过现金先行约束引入货币冲击符合中国经济运行特征。笔者在真实经济周期理论框架内分析了外生货币冲击对中国经济波动产生的影响。研究表明,货币发行冲击主要影响消费、投资和通胀率的波动,而其他主要经济变量(产出、就业等)的波幅基本不变。

Preceding constraint of cash exists obviously in the resident consumption of China. Introducing monetary shock into the real business cycle model through the preceding constraint of cash conforms to the operating features of Chinese economy. The author analy- ses the influence of exogenous monetary shock on the fluctuation of Chinese economy based on the RBC theory. The study shows that money issuance shocks mainly affect the fluctuations of consumption, investment, and inflation rate and the fluctuation amplitudes of other economic variables remain basically unchanged.