摘要
以滇西北香格里拉县为例,利用1989、2000年TM（ETM）数据得出土地利用变化信息,利用元胞自动机理论对土地利用变化进行模拟和预测。预测结果经与2003年的调查结果对比,Kappa系数达0.79。与2000年相比,2015年土地利用模拟结果中自然/半自然植被面积减少幅度呈现增大趋势,减少面积占2000年自然/半自然植被总面积的9.32%;人工用地2000~2015年间282.45 hm2/年的速度增长,高于1989~2000年间208.3 hm2/年速度,主要来源是未利用土地、农业用地和自然/半自然植被的减少。农业用地2000~2015年间以1 563.613 hm2/年的速度增加,高于1989~2000年农业用地的1431.614 hm2/年速度,其增加面积主要来源于自然/半自然植被和未利用土地,主要集中在人工用地周围。
Based on TM（ETM） data in 1989 and 2000,the landuse information of Shangri-La County in northwest Yunnan was obtained respectively,and then landuse change in near future was simulated and predicted with cellular automata theory.The results showed that landuse simulation in 2003 was fit well with the landuse distribution at same year by using remote sensing and field investigation with Kappa coefficient of 0.79.The forecasting landuse in 2015 showed that natural/semi-natural vegetation in the area showed trend of reductions to reduce the total area of 9.32% natural / semi-natural vegetation in 2000.Average artificial land annual growth rate from 2000 to 2015 was 282.45 hm2,higher than average annual rate of 208.3 hm2 from 1989 to 2000,mainly from unused land,agricultural land and natural/semi-natural vegetation reduction.An average annual increase rate of agricultural land from 2000 to 2015 was 1563.613 hm2,higher than the average annual rate of the agricultural land of 1 431.614 hm2 from 1989 to 2000,coming mainly from natural/semi-natural vegetation and unused land,mainly in artificial land around.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第4期2380-2383,2438,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
西南林业大学重点基金项目(200503Z)
林业公益性行业科研专项(200904045)
森林经理学国家林业局重点学科(XKZ200901)
