兴国县耕地面积变化的预测及驱动力分析

Prediction on Agricultural Acreage Variation and Analysis on Its Driving Forces in Xingguo County

根据兴国县1997~2005年的统计资料和2005年全县土地利用变更数据,采用主成分分析法分析全县耕地变化驱动力的主要影响因子,通过建立多元线性回归模型预测耕地面积的变化趋势。结果表明,影响兴国县耕地数量变化的驱动力为人口、经济发展与政策因素、粮食生产力因素;预测表明,2020年兴国县耕地面积达3.15万hm2,呈减少趋势。

According to the statistical data of Xingguo County during 1997-2005 and the land utilization alteration data in whole county in 2005,the main influencing factors of the driving forces of cultivated land variation in whole county were analyzed based on the methods of principal component analysis,and through the establishment of multiple linear regression model,the variation trend of agricultural acreage was predicted.The results indicated that population and economic development,policy factors and grain productivity factors were the driving forces,which affected the cultivated land quantity variation in Xingguo County.The prediction indicated that agricultural acreage in Xingguo County in 2020 was 3.15×104 hm2 and showed decreasing trend.