我国粮食价格波动影响因素及特征分析

Analysis and Symposium of the Factors that Affect China Foodstuffs Price Fluctuation

根据我国的粮食政策、粮食市场供求变化及粮食价格变化规律,可以将我国粮食价格波动分为3个阶段6个时期。第1阶段是计划经济阶段,第2阶段是粮食改革市场化阶段,第3阶段是市场化深入及对外开放阶段。我国粮食价格波动的影响因素包括影响粮食供给的各种因素、影响粮食需求的各种因素及投机与心理预期因素。我国粮食价格在不同阶段影响因素各不相同,不同阶段各影响因素所起的作用也各不相同。我国粮食市场的市场化、国际化程度日益提高,国际粮食市场对国内粮食市场的影响日益增大,存在联动效应。国际市场粮食产量、需求量对我国粮食价格将产生较大影响。国内外游资对粮食市场的投机行为明显加强。

China＇s foodstuffs price fluctuation could be divided into three stages and six periods according to China＇s foodstuffs policy,the variation of the supply and demand and the regularity of foodstuffs price change.The first stage is the planned economic era,the second stage is foodstuffs reform market stage,and the third stage is the deepened market and opening up stage.The factor that affects China foodstuffs price fluctuation includes the factors that affect the supply,the factors that affect the demand,the speculating and the confidence in the future needs.The different factors affect the foodstuffs price differently in different stages.With the marketization and internationalization of China foodstuffs,the international foodstuffs market will strongly affect China foodstuffs market（connected effect）.The international foodstuffs production and demand will strongly affect China foodstuffs price.The domestic and international hot money be likely speculate the foodstuffs market.