迈入后配额时代第五年:对全球纺织服装贸易新格局与政策的思考

The Fifth Anniversary of "Post-Quota Era":Thinking on the New Pattern of World Textiles and Clothing Trade and Trade Policy

本文从宏观制度层面,对后配额时代5年来全球纺织服装贸易(T&C)的整体格局和相关贸易政策的影响,进行了全面而深入的分析。本文认为,2005年至今全球T&C贸易格局的整体走势包括:中国体现竞争优势,但不会处于垄断地位;买家整合采购渠道,服装出口将取决于纺织品生产能力;以及区域性T&C贸易主导地位逐步被削弱。本文同时认为,判断未来全球T&C贸易格局的进一步走向,应关注"中国+1"模式的发展以及一些主要T&C贸易政策对弱势发展中国家所产生的"意外"负面效应。本文的研究内容和结论,对于我国相关政府部门和企业把握全球T&C贸易发展的大方向,具有重要的参考和借鉴意义。

This paper comprehensively evaluates the overall patterns of world textiles and clothing （T＆C） trade since the elimination of the global quota system in 2005 as well as the impacts of related trade policies from an institutional perspective at the macro level. Four emerging trends of the world T＆C trade in the past five-year ＂post-quota era＂ are identified in this paper, which includes the non-dominant position of Chinese T＆C products in the world market despite of their growing competitiveness, the consolidation of sourcing channels by buyers and importers in developed countries, the increasing dependence on textile-manufacturing capacity for apparel exporting countries as well as the waning yet still strong regional T＆C trade pattern. This paper further argues that the emergence of ＂China plus one＂ sourcing strategy and the ＂accidental＂ negative impacts of several major T＆C trade policies on developing countries with competitive disadvantages will play significant roles in shaping the future of the world T＆C trade. Findings and conclusions of this study are of great value as references for government agencies and firms in the business to capture the big landscape of today＇s world T＆C trade.