人口转型的经济学解释

ECONOMIC EXPLANATIONS TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

本文首先介绍了人口转型的含义及各种解释,然后详细讨论了基于经济学框架的各种人口转型理论,包括人口转型过程中的生育率下降、死亡率下降、人口的年龄结构变化等现象,以及人力资本的形成、人口的人力资本构成、技术进步等因素对于这些现象的解释作用,最后分别从人口学和经济学的角度分析现有的各种人口转型理论的局限性,同时指明未来研究的可能方向。

As an important demographic phenomenon,Demographic Transition（DT） also has significant economic consequence.The author compares several explanations to DT from demographers and argues that most of them could be reconciled with a theoretical economic growth model,which have crucial characteristics,such as the reduction in fertility,the reduction in mortality,the age structure of the population,the formation and composition of human capital of the population and technological progress.Due to the complexity of DT,explanations from both demographers and economists have their limitation,that could be dealt with through future research.