中日韩自由贸易协议对中国农业的经济与环境影响研究--基于可计算局部均衡模型的分析

Assessment of China-Japan-Korea FTA's Economic and Environmental Impact on China's Agriculture:On a Computable Partial Equilibrium Model

在2010年中日韩领导人会议上,三国政府表示将推动中日韩自由贸易协议(CJKFTA:China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement)的签署,加快三国贸易自由化进程。我国农产品在三国贸易中占有比较优势,在出口增加的同时,也可能拉动国内生产规模的扩大,造成环境影响。为了提高我国政府在中日韩区域经济一体化谈判进程中对农业环境问题的重视程度,并为其提供环境决策依据,需要定量分析CJKFTA对中国农业的环境影响。采用"贸易-经济-环境"链式反应评价方法(CRAM)及其框架下的可计算局部均衡(CPE)模型,能够利用更具时效性的数据,深入到微观产业乃至产品层面,比较直观而清晰地定量分析一项贸易政策的经济、环境影响。按照贸易自由化程度的不同,设置了低、中、高三种政策情景,对CJKFTA下与农产品相关的贸易政策进行分析。模拟结果表明:CJKFTA的实施将会促进我国农业的发展,表现为农产品贸易量和产量的增长;同时也可能对环境产生一定程度的负面影响,包括COD、TN、TP、农药、农膜、温室气体等污染物排放量的增加,以及水资源消耗量的增大。因此,如何出台配套政策以缓冲CJKFTA下中国农业的不利环境影响,是值得关注和重视的课题。

At China-Japan-Korea summit meeting in 2010,the government leaders from the three countries agree to promote the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement（CJKFTA）to accelerate the regional trade liberalization.China＇s agricultural commodities hold comparative advantages in the trade among the three countries,but the environmental impact may rise from the successive enlargement of export and domestic production scale.Thus there is a need of assessing the environmental impact of such a trade policy to help the negotiators understand and pay more attention to the environment issues during CJKFTA negotiations,and help lobby the governments to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaption or mitigation.The Chain Reaction Assessment Method（CRAM）serves to be the analysis framework,under which a Computable Partial Equilibrium（CPE）model is employed as the major analysis tool.This methodology is suitable for quantitative evaluations of economic and environmental impacts of trade policies,with the capacity of in-depth analysis on more disaggregated industrial sectors and in a more explicit view.This paper carries out simulations in three policy scenarios with discriminated levels of regional trade liberalization.Comparison of the simulation results of the FTA with the baseline scenario indicates that CJKFTA will improve the development of China＇s agriculture by increasing the trade volume and domestic production.Meanwhile,negative environmental impacts can be expected,including the increase of water resource consumptions and pollutant emissions,such as COD,TN,TP,agricultural chemicals,agricultural films,and green house gases.Therefore,necessary policy countermeasures should be taken to mitigate such impacts.