家庭宽带业务发展预测模型及其应用

Prediction Model of Family Broadband Business Development and Its Application

提出一种基于线性规划的预测模型对家庭宽带客户进行预测,在此基础上利用指数平滑法及自回归移动平均模型预测宽带市场空间。实证结果表明,该模型在预测家庭宽带客户方面有较高的准确性,基于该预测结果对宽带市场空间发展的预测也比较准确,可以为电信运营商的宽带业务发展及战略决策提供支持。

This paper proposes a prediction model based on linear programming to predict the home broadband customers,and uses exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to predict broadband market space based on the model.Experimental results show that the model has better accuracy on predicting home broadband customers as well as broadband market space prediction,which provides supports for broadband business development and strategic decision of carriers.