滑坡风险评价难点及方法综述

Landslide risk assessment difficulties and methods:an review

滑坡风险评价是从国外引进的新理念和新方法,国内目前对此的理解和应用,甚至概念都有混淆之处;同时又由于"风险"的本质是一种未来事件的不确定性,对其评价也有诸多困难。本文根据当今国际上通用的滑坡风险管理理论,得出风险评价要素,进而分析出进行滑坡风险评价的难点,从滑坡的空间预测、时间预测、滑移距离预测和强度预测四个方面,综述了国内外在这些难点上进行量化和评价的技术方法,并对各种方法的优缺点和适用性进行了评述。

Landslides risk assessment is a relatively new conception and method introduced from overseas.In the understanding and application of this theory or methods still exist quite of confusions.The nature of risk is a kind of uncertainty in the future.Therefore assessment of the risk is full of difficulties.This paper initially analyzed the elements for assessing the risk according to the international popular landslides risk management theory.It puts forward the difficulties of assessing landslide risks,including spatial distribution forecasting,initiation time forecasting,travel distance forecasting and landslide intensity forecasting.Quantifying or assessing each of the above four aspects is also discussed.The advantages and disadvantages or applicability of these methodologies are analyzed.