烟台市耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction on Cropland Change and Grain Security of Yantai City

运用预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,在分析烟台市近10 a以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点,运用预测理论对未来20 a耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果表明:1999～2008年,烟台市粮食供需差距越来越大。在未来20 a,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径。

By using prediction theory,minimum cropland acreage per capita,cropland pressure index model and on the base of the analysis on the changes in cropland,population and grain output of Yantai between 1999 and 2008,the cropland,population,grain output,minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 20 years.The results showed the gap between the supply and demand of grain was growing.In the future 20 years,depending on increasing devotion and making progress of science and technology to raise cropland rate of production continuously are the basic path of easing cropland pressure and promising the food safe production.