工程建设项目全寿命周期健康状态评价模型及其风险贡献因子

Health estimation model and risk contribution factors in engineering project life-cycle

针对传统工程风险管理方法的弊端,引入工程全寿命理念,建立了直观的工程阶段健康状态评价指标和健康等级概率评估模型,并通过对工程全寿命周期内各个阶段风险可能的分析,评价了工程各阶段的风险贡献因子和风险影响程度.

Based on the disadvantages of traditional engineering risk management method,the idea of project′s life-cycle method was introduced in risk analysis.The intuitive guideline for stage health estimation and project health grade probability model were set up in this paper.The risk contribution factors and influence degree in different engineering stages were also estimated by analyzing the risk possibility of project life-cycle stages.