外贸隐含碳排放变化的驱动因素研究——基于I-O SDA模型的分析

An Empirical Study of Driving Factors in Growth of Embodied Carbon in Foreign Trade:Analysis Based on I-O SDA Model

随着2009年哥本哈根第十五次缔约方大会的召开,CO2等温室气体的控制减排已不再是个纯科学议题,而成为国际政治经济关系的重要话题,贸易中隐含碳的排放也成为研究的焦点。本文定量测算了2002、2005及2008年中国进出口贸易隐含碳排放量,并利用投入产出结构分解模型(I-O SDA)对影响外贸隐含碳排放变化的驱动因素进行分解分析。结果显示:(1)各年隐含碳净出口值及其占当年国内排放总量之比都呈增长趋势;(2)对隐含碳排放变化影响最大的是出(进)口总效应;(3)两阶段的出(进)口规模效应都为正;(4)两阶段的出(进)口结构效应有较大不同,如2005-2008年,出口结构效应汇总为18187万吨,而进口结构效应汇总为-35678万吨;(5)在此期间,中间投入效应有较大改善,2002-2005年出(进)口中间投入效应为2116(3820)万吨,而2005-2008年为-9999(-12587)万吨;(6)单位产值碳排放效应也有较大改善,且两阶段单位产值碳排放效应主要由单位产值能耗效应决定(各部门两种效应方向完全一致);(7)两阶段出(进)口单位能源碳排放效应均非常小,改善不太明显。

With the 2009 Fifteenth Conference of the Parties held in Copenhagen,the reduction of CO2 emission is not only a purely scientific question,but also an important issue of international political and economic relations,meanwhile,the emission of embodied carbon during the process of trading has become a focus of research.This paper quantitatively measures the emissions of embodied carbon,and the Model of Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis is used to analyze the driving factors in growth of CO2 emission.The result shows that：（1） The net export of embodied carbon and the proportion of total domestic emissions are both increased;（2） The greatest impact is the total export（import） effect;（3） The export（import） scale effects of two stages are both positive;（4）The export（import） structure effects of two stages are quite different.During the period 2005 to 2008,total export structure effect is 181.87 million tons,while total import structure effect is-356.78 million tons;（5） Effect of intermediate inputs has greatly improved.The export（import） intermediate inputs effect is-99.99（-125.87）million tons during the period 2005 to 2008,while it is 21.16（38.20）million tons during the period 2002 to 2005;（6）Effect of carbon emissions per unit output value is also significantly improved,and decided mainly by the energy consumption per unit output value effect;（7）Effects of export（import） carbon emissions per unit of energy during the two stages are very small.