“助推器”还是“稳定器”:保险业对经济产出作用的经验证据

Booster or stabilizer:an empirical analysis on the function of insurance industry to economic growth

现存理论与已有实证结论就“我国保险业对经济产出发挥的作用及程度”问题尚未达成统一共识。本文运用1999年～2009年保险市场以及GDP的相关季度数据，使用向量误差修正模型（VECM）论证我国保险业对经济产出的现实作用。研究结果表明，近十年来，中国保险业主要发挥的是抑制经济波动的“稳定器”作用，而对经济增长的“助推器”作用并不明显。部分原因在于目前保险发展还处于一个粗放经营阶段。加大保险产品和服务创新，扩大保险资金的使用渠道，不仅是维护经济稳定发展的审耍保证．也是旱日成为经济“助推器”的必要前提。

Existing theoretical and empirical studies have not reached consensus on the function of insurance industry to economic output. This paper explored the effect the insurance industry played through the vector error correction model （VECM） and quarterly insurance market and GDP data during 1999-2009. The paper concluded that China＇s insurance industry had play the role of economic stabilizer rather than economic booster during the last dec- ade, partly due to the situation that the insurance industry was still at an extensive operation stage. Making innovations in insurance products and services available, and expanding channels of the use of insurance funds in China, would not only be the basic guarantee for stable economic development in China, but also a necessary prerequisite for the industry to become an economic booster early.