汇率、贸易开放度与经济增长:短期波动与长期均衡——基于自回归分布滞后模型的经验研究

Exchange Rate,Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Empirical Research Based on ARDL Model

文章通过构建自回归分布滞后模型研究了汇率波动情况下贸易开放度与经济增长的长期关系,然后建立误差修正模型对两者之间的短期关系进行了刻画,重点考察了1978-2008年我国贸易开放度与经济增长在不同阶段的影响机制。经验分析结果表明,外商直接投资和贸易开放度对经济增长的短期效应大于长期效应;而人民币实际汇率对于经济增长的效应,则是长期效应大于短期效应。当外商直接投资、贸易开放度和人民币实际汇率造成的短期波动偏离长期的均衡时,经济增长能够通过自动调整趋于稳定。

In this paper, ADRL model is built to study the long-term relationship between trade openness and economic growth in the case of exchange rate fluctuations, and then VEM model is established to research the short-term relationship. The impact of the mechanism of China＇ s foreign trade openness and economic growth at different stages was characterized mainly inspected from 1978 to 2008. Empirical analysis results show that the short-term effect of foreign direct investment and trade openness on economic growth is greater than the long-term effect; while for the effects of RMB real exchange rate on economic growth, the long-term effect is larger than short-term effect. When the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium caused by the foreign direct investment, trade openness and the RMB real exchange rate, economic growth is able to automatically adjust to stabilization in a long run.