基于非线性拟合的水库泥沙预报模型研究——以丹江口水库为例

水库泥沙淤积量的预报,对水库合理调度,使其发挥应有的综合效益有着重要的意义。本文利用高斯——牛顿下降法,对水库泥沙淤积量W(t)的非线性拟合进行了探讨,并以丹江口水库泥沙淤积量W(t)预测为例,依据汉江几十年的实测统计资料,阐述了基于MATLAB的高斯——牛顿法非线性拟合的方法和步骤。从本文提出的丹江口水库的库淤积量非线性拟合的实际算法可以看出,用所得非线性拟合函数来预测的结果与实测的结果非常接近,这说明本文的分析研究结果提出的方法是行之有效的。

The forecast of sediment volume is very important in reservoir controlling and total benefits.With the theory of Gauss-Newton,this paper discusses the non-linearity simulation model of reservoir sediment volume.Based on the actual data of Danjiangkou reservoir over fifty years,this paper elaborates the approaches and steps of non-linearity simulation based on Matlab.On basis of the algorithms,we find that the result of the mathematical model is approximation to the real results of Danjiangkou reservoir,which shows that approaches provided in this paper is useful.