外商直接投资对山东出口贸易总额的影响——基于虚拟变量、协整及格兰杰检验的实证研究

改革开放30多年来,我国利用外商直接投资取得了显著的成效,对外贸易总额不断攀升。本文利用FDI和山东出口贸易总额为研究对象,利用虚拟变量、单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和建立回归模型等方法,采用1984到2005年22年的数据,就外商直接投资对山东省出口贸易总额的影响进行了实证研究。回归结果表明FDI对山东省出口增长存在长期显著的促进作用,山东省FDI存量和出口贸易总额之间的关系也发生了结构性变化。

Since China＇s reform and opening to the world,great achievements have been made in absorbing and utilizing foreign capital in Shandong Province.This article takes the province of Shandong as the target that is both the hot area of absorbing foreign investment and the major foreign-oriented business province.By using econometric methods like virtual variables,unit root test,cointegration test,Granger Causality test and establishment of regression models,the paper concludes that FDI plays a decisive role in improving Shandong＇s export.Besides,the year of 1993 is an important turning point for Shandong＇s FDI.