房地产市场广义虚拟财富效应测度研究

Wealth Effect Measurement of the Real Estate Market from General Virtual Economy

中国居民的财富特征与发达国家居民的财富特征明显不同,这是由于我国房地产市场发展程度、金融市场自由化程度、住房自有率的高低、房地产市场的投机程度以及人们对待房地产财富的观念等方面的差异所导致。本文基于广义虚拟经济的视角,利用我国30个大中城市1998—2009年的季度数据,建立房地产财富效应测度模型,对广义虚拟经济条件下房地产财富效应进行了实证检验。计算结果表明:我国30个大中城市的广义虚拟房地产财富效应表现形式存在明显个体差异,大部分城市的房地产财富效应为负,30个城市的总体房地产财富效应也为负,且系数较小不显著。这表明我国近年来房价持续上涨对居民消费产生了一定的"挤出"效果和"抑制"作用,但从全国总体来看这种"挤出"和"抑制"作用并不明显。

China＇s personal wealth characteristic is obviously different from the developed countries. This is due to the differences of real estate market development degree, financial market liberalization degree, privately- owned house rent, real estate market speculative degree and the concept of people treating real estate wealth in China. In order to reveal the relationship of real estate prices and consumer, real estate wealth effect was measured by the model of the quarter data of China＇s 30 cities from 1998 to 2009 on the basis of general virtual economy. The conclusion indicates that the general real estate wealth effect of China＇s 30 cities shows obviously different in the individual differences. Most of the city＇s real estate wealth effect is negative. Overall real estate wealth effect of 30 cities is also negative, and coefficient is lesser, not significant. The empirical result shows that real estate wealth has significantly promoted residents＇ consumption in China in recent years, but real estate wealth effect has diminished with the growth of real estate wealth. China＇s real estate wealth effect is not very obvious from the national overall.