河南省气候生产力时空分布及粮食产量预测

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Climate Productivity and Prediction of Grain Output in Henan Province

利用河南省59a的气象资料,采用Thornthwaite Memoriai模型计算了河南省的气候生产力,用线性回归、M-K突变检验和Kriging空间插值法分析了河南省气候生产力的时空变化特征;最后用灰色预测方法对河南省未来12a的粮食潜力进行预测。研究表明:59a年来河南省气候生产力呈上升趋势,1955年为气候生产力的突变年份;河南省气候生产力空间分布由东南向西北逐渐减少,豫南的气候生产力增速最快,稳定性最大;气候变暖对于河南农业生产是有利的,河南省粮食单产量仍有40%-45%的生产潜力,未来12a粮食产量呈增长的趋势,到2020年粮食总产量可达8740.8082×104t。

According to the meteorological data in the past 59 years,the paper calculated the climate productivity in Henan with Thornthwaite Memoriai model and analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of climate productivity by linear regression,M-K mutation testing and Kriging interpolation method.Finally,using the method of gray forecasting predicts the grain potential productivity in the 12 years of Henan Province.The results show that： the climate productivity was rising gradually in the past 59 years of Henan Province,and the jumping point of the climate productivity is in the year of 1955.The spatial distribution of climate productivity in Henan Province decreases gradually from southeast to northwest.And at the same time the climate productivity of the south of Henan grows fastest and keeps the most stable.Climate warming is beneficial for agricultural production of Henan.There will be a production potential between 40% and 45% in single grain yield of Henan.The grain output of Henan has a growing trend in the next 12 years and will be up to 8740.8082 ×104 t totally in 2020.