“两型社会”城市生态足迹时间维变化及驱动研究——以武汉市为例

Ecological Footprint Time Series and Analysis on Driving Forces in "Two-Oriented Society" City——Taking Wuhan As an Example

运用生态足迹理论,采用相关经济数据,对"两型社会"城市-武汉市2000-2008年时间维生态足迹进行计算,并对其变化原因进行分析,最后采用定性定量相结合的方法分析武汉市历年生态足迹动态变化的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)武汉市生态足迹需求呈不断上升趋势,人均生态足迹由2000年的2.5054hm2增至2008年的3.2090 hm2,经济增长、人口结构的变化及生产力的提高是促使人均生态足迹提高的主要因素;(2)武汉市人均生态承载力不断减少,由2000年的0.3252hm2减少为2008年的0.2749hm2,土地利用结构的变化是导致生态承载力变化的重要因素;(3)生态赤字程度逐渐增大,说明随着社会经济的发展,武汉市的资源环境压力逐渐增大。要实现武汉市可持续发展,一方面需要增大资源供给;另一方面需要减少资源消耗、优化产业结构。

This paper calculates the ecological footprint of Wuhan City from 2000 to 2008 using the theory of ecological footprint and relevant economic data,and analyses the causes of its change,finally combines the method of qualitative and quantitative to analyze the drivers of ecological footprint changes of Wuhan City.The results shows that：（1） the ecological footprint of Wuhan showed continuous increasing trend,per capital ecological footprint had increased from 2.5054 hm2 in 2000 to 3.2090 hm2 in 2008,the change of population structure and growth in productivity are the main factors to promote per capita ecological footprint increased;（2） the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Wuhan has been declined,which from 0.3252 hm2 in 2000 reduced to 0.2749 hm2 in 2008,the change of land use structure is an important factor making ecological carrying capacity changed;（3） the ecological deficit level has been increased,which shows that as socio-economic development,pressure of resources and environment in Wuhan increased.To achieve sustainable development in Wuhan,on the one hand,to increase the supply of resources is needed,on the other hand,we need to reduce resource consumption and optimize the industrial structure.