产能利用不足和通胀压力并存的悖论——从产能角度思考中国经济的深层次问题及对策

The Paradox in the Coexistence of Insufficient Capacity Utilization and Inflation Pressure——Chinese Economy's Deep-Seated Problems from the Perspective of Overcapacity and the Countermeasures

从中国经济运行的实证轨迹来看,产能过剩存在于以钢铁等为代表的中上游工业制造业和以部分机械制造行业为代表的中下游工业制造业,近年来在以高速公路、高速铁路和轨道交通为代表的基础设施行业也有所体现。在产能过剩的同时,中国的通胀压力尤其是生产资料价格上涨压力却难以消减。产能利用不足与通胀压力并存的根源值得深入分析。生产要素价格偏低且定价机制不合理、投资和消费需求结构失衡、企业在产能过剩情况下仍有利可图、投资的行业结构不尽合理以及投资主体结构失衡是造成这种现象的重要成因,其中投资结构和主体失衡是核心的深层次原因。

According to the moving track of Chinese economy, overcapaeity extensively exists in up-and-mid-stream manufacturing, represented by steel industry, and in mid-and-down-stream manufacturing, represented by part of machinery manufacturing. In recent years, overcapacity has emerged in infrastructure industry, such as express way, high speed railway and track transportation. At the same time of overcapacity, the inflation pressure in China, especially upward pressure on prices of means of production, is hard to eliminate. It is valuable to deeply analyze the root of the phenomenon that insufficient capacity utilization and inflation pressure coexist. The main causes resulting in such phenomenon include relatively low prices of production factors and unreasonable pricing mechanism, unbalanced structure of investment and consumer demand, abnormal profitability of enterprises in industries with overcapacity, irrational industrial structure of investment and unbalanced investor structure. Among them, the imbalance of investment structure and investors is the most deep-seated cause.