中国不良贷款回收率地区差异的原因分析

Analysis of reasons for the regional difference of recovery rate of China's NPL

在中国不同省份的不良贷款回收率水平之间存在较大的差异.通过构造一系列能够刻画各省的经济发展水平和市场化程度的指标,较好地解释了环境因素对地区回收率差异的影响.研究结果表明:不同地区在经济发展水平、要素市场发育程度、法律环境和中介组织发育程度、非国有经济发展程度、政府干预程度等因素的差异能够比较好地解释其回收率之间的差异,而且2001年至2005年各省的不良贷款回收率差异的逐渐变小也是由于这些因素的趋同造成的.基于这些指标,将回收率水平接近的省份划分到相同的区域,为不良贷款的分区域回收率建模奠定基础.

In China, there exists a big difference in recovery rate of non-performing loans between provinces. By constructing a series of indicators which represent the economic development and marketization level of every province, the differences between the provinces＇ recovery rate can be explained. The results show that the differences between the indicators, such as per capita GDP, development of factor markets, legal environment and intermediary organizations and non-state economy, and degree of government intervention, can well explain the differences in recovery rate between provinces. Further, the authors explain why the differences in recovery rate between provinces became smaller from 2001 to 2005 are given. Based on these indicators, the authors divided the provinces with close recovery rate into the same cluster, which would lay the foundation for disposal of non-performing loan recovery and risk management beyond provinces.