供给领先的金融发展与经济增长——理论假说与经验事实

Supply-leading Financial Development and the Economic Growth——Theoretical Hypothesis and Empirical Fact

首先,在OLG模型的基础上,利用两阶段规模报酬递增的生产函数推导了供给领先的金融发展模式对经济增长的作用机制。然后,基于40个国家1985～2004年的面板数据建立了VAR模型,对Patrick(1966)提出的供给领先的金融发展对经济增长的作用机制与效应进行了分析和检验。最后发现,在人均收入水平较低的发展中国家,供给领先的金融发展模式的效应较为明显,经济增长对供给领先的金融发展模式具有较强的正面响应,而在人均收入水平较高的发达国家,这一效应却并不明显,说明供给领先的金融发展对发展中国家而言具有更为重要的意义。

Based on the OLG model,using two stages increasing returns to scale production function,this paper derivates the mechanism between supply-leading financial development model and economic growth.Using 40 countries panel data in 1985-2004 and the panel VAR model,this article analyzes the mechanism of the Patrick（1966） supply-leading financial development on economic growth,and finds that in lower level of per capita income countries,the mechanism of the supply leading model and the economic growth are more obvious,while in income countries with the higher levels of per capita,the effect of financial development is not clear yet.Supply-leading financial development may play more importance in developing countries.