日元升值影响的三种假说及对人民币汇率调整的启示

Three Hypotheses on the Effect of the Japanese Yen's Appreciation and Related Implication for RMB'S Exchange Rate Adjustments

广场协议后的日元升值与日本经济衰退之间没有必然联系。日本经济衰退是日本经济高度发展之后,追赶型发展模式没有相应转变,迫于美国压力实施不当货币政策的结果。中国当前存在通货膨胀压力,人民币对美元名义汇率有升值趋势。减税、增加公共支出、改革融资体制,统一分割的地方市场既有助于抵消本币升值的紧缩效应,又有利于经济结构的调整。

There was no inevitable connection between Yen＇s appreciation and the recession of Japan＇s economy after the Plaza Accord.The recession was mainly an aftereffect of the unsuitable monetary policies implemented under the pressure enforced by the US when Japan＇s catch-up growth mode failed to transform after its leaping-forward achievement in economy.Currently China is confronted with inflation expectation and RMB＇s nominal exchange rate against the US dollar is under upward pressure.Tax reduction,expenditure increase in the public sector,reform in financing system and the integration of the segmented local markets will help to offset the deflation effect of the home currency＇s appreciation and adjust economic structure.