出口贸易及其名义汇率与实际汇率风险——基于中国对主要贸易伙伴国面板数据的实证研究

Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility,Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data between China and Its Major Trading Partners

本文采用中国对28个主要贸易伙伴国出口的面板数据,对比分析了2005年汇改前后人民币名义汇率波动风险和实际汇率波动风险对中国出口的影响。通过实证研究后发现:无论是汇改前还是汇改后的人民币实际汇率波动风险对中国的出口均未产生显著影响;而汇改后,人民币名义汇率波动风险却对中国的出口产生了显著的负向影响。由此可见,相对于实际汇率波动风险而言,名义汇率波动风险对中国出口的影响更显重要。

Adopting the export panel data between China and 28 major trading partners,this paper compares and analyzes the impact of exchange rate volatility on China＇s exports in two time periods respectively： before（Period1） and after（Period2） the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.This paper first compares and analyzes the different impacts of real exchange rate volatility on China＇s exports in Period1 and Period2.And then this paper focuses on the different effects of nominal exchange rate volatility and real exchange rate volatility on China＇s exports during Period2.The empirical results suggest that real exchange rate volatility has no significant impact on China＇s exports neither in Period1 nor in Period2.However,there is a significant negative relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and China＇s exports.The finds show that comparing to real exchange rate volatility;nominal exchange rate volatility imposes more significant impacts on China＇s exports.