气候变化下水文极端事件变化预测研究进展

Advances in the study of projection of climate change impacts on hydrological extremes

全球气候变化对洪水、干旱等极端水文事件的影响已成为一个亟待解决的科学问题。针对国内外在气候变化下采用统计降尺度和降雨径流模型对水文极端事件进行预测的研究进展进行了系统分析,在分类阐述的基础上,总结了国内外最新的研究进展及在预估过程中存在的问题和解决方案,试图凝练出一些气候变化背景下水文极端事件预估的新思路。结果表明:为有效降低极端水文事件预估的不确定性,各种集合模拟技术、数据同化方法、强化观测技术及水文模型的尺度转换理论将是有效的解决途径。

The study of climate change impacts on hydrological extremes including floods and droughts has been widely recognized as one of the main scientific issues that need to be addressed with priority.This article reviews recent advances in the relevant study with emphasis on the methodologies used for statistical downscaling and the approaches of using rainfall-runoff models to construct extreme scenarios under climate change conditions.The pros and cons of the methodologies and approaches are also discussed in order to propose some novel ideas dealing with hydrological extremes under climate change conditions.As the result,we recommend the use of multi-model ensemble techniques,data assimilation methods,and scale transformation in hydrological modeling.This could potentially reduce uncertainties in the construction of extreme scenarios under climate change conditions.