基于情景分析的突发事件应急预案编制方法初探

Preliminary Exploration on Scenario-based Contingency Planning

应对突发事件,制定行之有效的应急预案是保障人民生命财产安全与社会稳定的重要措施。本文在分析我国应急预案编制过程中存在的问题的基础上,探讨了如何利用情景分析的方法实现应急预案的有效编制的程序,即从灾害风险评估到情景设置与分析、响应策略的制定、实施计划、辅助操作与应急准备等一系列环环相扣的步骤,旨在从情景模拟中提炼出切实可行的行为策略,以期改善应急预案的预见性、完备性和可操作性。

To enhance people＇s capabilities of dealing with the contingency,the establishment and implementation of an effective contingency plan is the fundamental measurement to keep people＇s lives and properties under protection.On the basis of summarizing the current compiling process of our country＇s contingency plans,this paper discusses the exploration on how to set down the contingency plan through scenario-based analysis with the aim to ameliorate the contingency plan＇s predictability,completeness and feasibility by extracting feasible behavior strategies through scenario simulation.The paper mainly illustrates the ordered and cogent procedure which covers hazard risk analysis,scenario setting,response strategy,implementation planning,operational support plan and preparedness planning.