基于数据处理及图件的小麦-水稻种植制度的气候风险评估

Assessing the climate risk degree of wheat-corn double cropping system based on date processing and images

淮河流域地处中国南北气候过渡带,是重要的气候变化敏感区,定量研究淮河流域小麦-水稻种植制度的气候风险度,可为科学地评估改品种、改熟制及因地制宜地制定科学可靠的种植制度提供依据。应用生态适宜度理论和模糊数学方法,建立了适宜度模型,综合作物适宜度及其概率分布,构建风险度模型,并结合未来气候变化情景,对淮河流域小麦-水稻种植制度的气候风险度进行了模拟。结果表明:淮河流域稻麦两熟制的气候风险度在0.15～0.50之间变动,主要是由于降水适宜度低、标准差大。气候风险度的空间分布由东部沿海向西部山区递增,一方面是东部沿海到西部内陆降水量逐渐减少,另一方面是内陆气候要素的变率较大,因此风险度较高。在未来气候情景下,稻麦两熟制的气候风险度小于0.38,气候风险度减小。

On the basis of ecological theory of niche-fitness and fuzzy mathematics methods,the climate suitability model was established.With comprehensive crops climate suitability and the probability distribution,the risk model was established.On the above basis,the dynamic risk analysis and evaluation were made for the wheat-rice cropping system.At the same time,combined the IPCC A2 climate circumstances,the climate risk was simulated for the wheat-rice cropping system in the Huaihe River Basin in the following 30 a.The results showed that the risk index varied from 0.15 to 0.50.The main reason was that the precipitation suitability was low,and the standard deviation was big.So the main method to avoid the risk was to improve the water control and adjust the system.The special distribution of climate risk index mainly increased from the east coastal area to the west mountain areas,the reasons were the precipitation decrease from the east to the west and the inland climate factors varied more frequently.In the last 45 years,climate risks index increased for the rice-wheat double cropping system,with main reason that the sunshine strength increased sharply.The highest climate risk trend was in the southwest areas,and decreased in the east and the north areas.In the future climate circumstances,climate risk index（from 0 to 0.02） will have apparent decrease for the rice-wheat double cropping system.