长江上游寸滩站2010年“7.19”洪水预报分析

Analysis on flood forecast at Cuntan station in upper Yangtze River on 19th,July,2010

2010年7月长江上游控制站寸滩站出现1987年以来的最大洪水,洪峰流量达64 900 m3/s,是长江三峡水库建成以来的最大洪水。寸滩水文站是三峡水库的入库站,其洪水预报的时效性和精度直接影响三峡水库调度运用,长江中下游及重庆市的防汛。影响寸滩水文站洪水水位流量预报的因素较多,既受上游各干支流大江河来水组成的影响,也受下游三峡水库回水顶托的影响。在认真分析影响寸滩站洪水流量的各种因素,及时掌握水雨情资料的条件下,2010年寸滩洪水预报取得了较满意的成果。对2010年寸滩的洪水预报进行分析,为以后的洪水预报积累经验,以便更好地服务于长江防汛和三峡水库调度。

In July of 2010,the largest flood since 1987 occurred at Cuntan Hydrological Station in the upper Yangtze River with the flood peak of 64 900 m 3/s.It is also the largest inflow into TGP reservoir after TGP completion.The forecast of water level and discharge of Cuntan Hydrological Station are influenced by multiple factors,such as flood composition from the upstream rivers,backwater of Three Gorges Reservoir.On the basis of the analysis on influential factors on flood forecast of Cuntan Hydrological station and the rainfall-flood regime,the flood at Cuntan Hydrological Station in 2010 was successfully forecasted.We summarize the experience of the forecast of 2010 flood at Cuntan Hydrological Station to provide better service for Yangtze River flood control and Three Gorges Reservoir regulation.