浙江省金融结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文采用浙江省1990～2007年的宏观经济数据,运用主成分分析法,构建了两个衡量浙江金融结构的因子,并将它们与经济增长指标置于同一模型进行回归分析后发现:金融总量因子与浙江的经济增长率、投资率呈显著的负相关关系。而金融效率因子不仅有利于浙江经济增长率的提升,还可以带动投资水平的增加;浙江经济增长与两大因子均正相关,且与金融效率因子的关系更显著。在格兰杰因果关系检验中,金融效率的提高是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因,而经济增长则是金融总量提高的单向格兰杰原因。实证结果表明,注重金融效率、发展直接融资市场,优化投资渠道以及合理配置金融资源将有助于浙江经济增长。

This paper builds two factors to measured Zhejiang financial structure using Principal Component Analysis with macroeconomic data of Zhejiang province from 1990 to 2007,and then puts these two factors with the economic growth indicators in the same model regression analysis.The result shows that the correlation between the finance total factor is significant negative with Zhejiang＇s economic growth rate and Investment Rate,however,the efficiency factor will not only help enhance the economic growth rate of Zhejiang,but also promote the level of investment.The correlations between Zhejiang economic growth and both two factors are positive,and which of efficiency factor shows more significant.In the Granger causality test,the efficiency factor is one-way Granger causing of economic growth,while the economic growth is ne-way Granger causing of the total factor.The empirical results show that it will contribute to Zhejiang＇s economic growth through paying more attention to financial efficiency,developing direct financing market,optimizing of investment channels and properly allocating financial resources.