浙江省粮食产量影响因子的灰色关联分析

The Correlation Analysis of Food Cereals Yield Affecting Factors in Zhejiang

近年来,浙江省农业经济迅速发展,但粮食产量却没有得到相应的增产,甚至出现了多年的减产。运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析方法,选择粮食单产、耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥用量、农药用量、农业机械总动力、农用塑料薄膜用量、受灾面积8项因子,与浙江省近7a来粮食产量之间的关联性进行分析后发现:化肥用量、有效灌溉面积是影响浙江省粮食产量的主要因子,其余依次为耕地面积、农药用量、粮食单产、农业机械总动力、农用塑料薄膜用量和受灾面积。并提出合理使用化肥和农药、增加农业有效灌溉面积、实行严格的耕地保护制度、实施科技兴农战略等建议,以稳定和增加浙江省粮食产量。

In recently years, Zhejiang agricultural economy has got a rapid development, but the output of cereals failed to obtain corresponding increase, and even drop in food production has appeared years. Aimed at the problem, using grey correlation analysis method in grey system theory, eight factors of the unit area grain yield, arable land size, available irrigation land area, fertilizer application amount, pesticide consumption, agricultural machinery total power, agricultural plastic films usage amount, and natural disaster affected land area are chosen to make correlation analysis with Zhejiang grain yields in nearly 7 years. The results showed that factors of fertilizer rate and available irrigation land area were two major factors for food cereal yield in Zhejiang province. The rest factors followed in an order as the following： cultivated land area, pesticide consumption, unit area grain yield, and the total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural plastic films usage and the natural disaster affected area. Suggestion was put forward about reasonable use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, increase of available agricultural irrigation area, strict farmland protection system, and science and technology innovation strategy in agriculture practice, to stabilize and improve food cereal production in Zhejiang province.