山西小麦穗蚜复合种群动态监测模型探讨

Approach to Model of Wheat Aphid Complex Population Dynamic Monitoring in Shanxi

1981—2009年,在山西临汾选择具有代表性的水地、旱地麦田进行定点定时调查,分析了小麦穗期麦蚜种群动态的影响因子及其对发生为害的显著影响,筛选出3个对发生程度有影响的预测因子,即发生程度级别(y)与越冬基数(x1)、4月上中旬平均气温(x2)、4月中下旬温湿度系数(x3)。采用回归分析法,利用计算机建立预测模型为:y=-0.7264+0.0604x1+0.2876x2-0.0779x3;运用20a的资料进行回归检验,历史拟合率高达90%,可用于分析小麦穗蚜复合种群的未来发展动态。

To provide accurate monitoring and timely control of wheat aphid complex population at tilling stage, present paper conduced time and spot fixed survey in representative irrigation and dry fields in Linfen Shanxi from 1981 to 2009. Three predicting factors of effect parameters of aphid dynamic at filling stage, impact factors of wheat aphid populations in wheat spike period and its significant impact for infection damage were screened, namely, occurrence degree（y）, the over winter base（x1 ）, the average temperature （x2） in early April and temperature/humidity factor（x3） in middle and late April. With regression analysis a prediction model was established as： y=-0.7264＋0.0604Xx＋0.2876 x2-0.0779x3. In addition, the resuhs of regression testing for 20 years＇ data showed that historical coincidence rate was as high as 90%, so this prediction model could be used to analyze the future development of aphid complex population dynamics.