1961-2009年全球工业原木与主要终端产品的产量变化

Analysis of global industry roundwood production and major end products in 1961-2009

为了更好地把握未来全球木材生产的发展趋势,为中国政策方针的制定调整提供依据,使用联合国粮农组织(FAO)对各国的调查数据进行了统计,分析了近期全球工业原木的生产状况及主要终端产品结构的变化。结果表明,全球工业原木产量有增速放缓的趋势,终端产品中的人造板、纸和纸板高速增长,木材生产逐渐从发达国家向发展中国家转移。工业原木和主要终端产品的产量在该阶段的消长,主要受到了森林资源、市场需求、政策法规、工业技术及自然灾害多方面的影响。为了应对未来全球的需求增长,减少中国对进口木材的依赖,我们需要加强森林培育管理以提高森林质量,并重视提高木材利用率和推广循环代用技术。

In order to gain a better understanding of the future development trend of global timber production,and provide the basis for the formulation and adjustment of policy guidelines,this paper gave a brief analysis of the changes in production of global industry roundwood and major end products between 1961-2009 on the basis of reports and data from FAO and other research on the global forestry.The result proved that global industrial roundwood production showed a decreasing growth rate,while wood-based panels,paper and paperboard remained high-speed growth.Besides,the production was gradually transferred from the developed to the developing countries.It was concluded that those changes resulted from factors including accessible area of forest,market demand,policies and regulations,technology development and natural disasters.To meet the increasing global demand and reduce our dependence on imported timber,we should enhance the cultivation and management of forest to improve forest quality and attach great importance to improving the wood utilization rate and reducing timber demand by recycling and replacement technology.