单桩承载力计算模式的不确定性分析

岩土工程分析模型大都存在不确定性，可靠性分析需要考虑模型不确定性的影响， 本文提出了真实反映模型不确定性的计算方法。文中还根据实测资料分析了单桩极限承载力计算模式的不确定性， 通过比较分析表明用本文方法表示模型的不确定性是适当的。

Uncertainties are nearly existing in all analytic models of geotechnical engineering. The influence of model uncertainty must be considered in reliability analysis. Calculations which reflect the real uncertainties of models are proposed herein. The uncertainties of calculating model for ultimate bearing capacity of pile are also analyzed based on observed data. Through comparison and analyses it is indicated that the uncertainties of model expressed by the said method are approroiate.