基于产业结构调整的太湖流域江浙部分减排效果分析

Discharge Abating Effect of Industry Restructuring——A Case Study of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Sections of the Taihu Lake Basin

在分析2007年太湖流域江浙部分产业结构的基础上,以万元GDP的COD排放量为指标定量分析了三产结构调整、工业结构内部调整对流域COD排放的影响。结果显示,2007年研究区域GDP总量17 532亿元,三产比例为2.6∶56.6∶40.8,平均COD排放水平为1.76 kg.万元-1。第一产业COD排放水平最高,达13.86 kg.万元-1,但第二产业COD排放量最大,远高于第三和第一产业,是水体有机污染的最大贡献者。情景模拟分析显示,增大单位GDP污染物排放量低的第三产业和第二产业中的机械制造业等的比例,减少纺织、印染、造纸、饮料、食品加工等高污染行业的比例,可以有效削减单位GDP污染物排放量。

Industry restructuring is a critical condition and an effective means as well for controlling amount and types of pollution.Take the Jiangsu and Zhejiang section of the Taihu Lake Basin as an example,industrial structure of its GDP,internal structure of its secondary industry and COD it discharged to rivers in 2007 were analyzed with COD discharge per 10 000 Yuan GDP as quantitative index.Results show that its GDP in 2007 was 1 753 billion,of which the three industries formed a ratio of 2.6∶56.6∶40.8 and its average COD discharge per 10 000 Yuan GDP was 1.76 kg.The primary industry was the highest in average COD discharge,reaching 13.86 kg per 10 000 Yuan,followed by the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,being 2.41 and 0.08 kg per 10 000 Yuan,respectively.But in terms of total amount of discharge,the secondary industry ranked first,responsible for most of the organic pollutants in the waterbody.Scenario analysis reveals that to increase the proportions of the tertiary industry and machine manufacturing industry of the secondary industry,both being low in COD discharge per unit value of GDP,and reduce the proportions of textile,printing and dyeing,paper-making,beverage,and food industries may effectively reduce COD discharge per unit GDP.