中国重点骨干烟草品牌市场变化趋势

Empirical Studies on the Market Trend of the China's Key Tobacco Brands

针对我国重点骨干烟草品牌市场趋势呈现的稳步、均衡、可持续特点,以及销量增长逐年递增、增幅递减的态势,选择ARIMA模型对重点骨干烟草品牌市场趋势进行预测,取得了精度较高的结果,为烟草企业生产经营提供决策依据。

From the perspectives of the impact of macro-economic,the characteristics of environment of the tobacco industry,the interest game of all tobacco enterprise-related parties and other aspects,this paper analyses market trends of key tobacco brands and builds the quantitative prediction models.It is concluded that the key tobacco brands will remain the trends of steady rapid development for some time in the future.Sales growth increases year after year,while the growth rate is decreasing.Using the ARIMA prediction model for predicting brand on tobacco has a high precision.