基于VAR模型的海南农垦天然橡胶要素投入产出分析

An Empirical Study on the Natural Rubber Input Factors and Output of Hainan State Farms

借助VAR模型分析海南农垦天然橡胶主要要素投入对产出的影响,发现在现有技术条件和生产阶段,天然橡胶开割面积是干胶产量增加的主动力,割胶工人、固定资产投入的贡献已很低;海南农垦天然橡胶生产已经处于原有技术体系的后期和面临技术体系革新的时期。因此应在现有技术体系不变条件下,提高现有技术的转化应用,加快新的技术体系变革。

The effect of input factors on output of natural rubber was analyzed based on VAR model.The result shows the area of tapped natural rubber in Hainan state farms has been the main cause for the increasing of dry rubber.Under current technical conditions and production,the contribution of tapping workers and capital asserts to the natural rubber industry is low.Therefore,natural rubber production in Hainan state farms is faced with an conversion of technological innovation,and the planting,breeding and tapping techniques of natural rubber urgently need to be strengthened.