突发危险化学品泄漏事故人群健康风险评价方法的应用

Application of Health Risk Assessment Method for Accidental Leakage of Hazardous Chemicals

目的建立突发危险化学品泄漏事故健康风险评估方法,评价重庆开县井喷事故中的人群健康风险。方法按照国际上通用的危害鉴定、暴露评价、剂量-反应关系评价和风险特征分析4步评价程序,结合危险化学品泄漏事故的自身特征,并借鉴国外突发事故相关研究成果,建立突发危险化学品泄漏事故健康风险评估方法。通过查询污染物特征数据库,确定重庆井喷事故中硫化氢健康损害效应的性质、特点和强度;根据事故现场实时环境监测的污染物浓度值进行事故风险场内人群暴露总量计算;采用阈值法和概率方程法相结合,对暴露人群可能出现的健康效应及其概率进行估算;预测事故可能造成的人员伤亡数量;并给出健康风险评估结果的不确定性。结果重庆井喷事故中,伤亡情况最为严重的高桥镇晓阳和高旺两村共死亡212人。本研究采用美国化学工程师协会-化工安全中心与荷兰应用科学研究组织提供的参数值模拟预测结果分别为364人和176人,预测结果与事故实际后果之间的相对误差分别为71.7%和17.0%。结论采用荷兰应用科学研究组织提供的参数值可以对井喷事故的死亡风险进行较准确的预测。本研究建立的突发危险化学品泄漏事故健康风险评估方法能够为突发危险化学品泄漏事故健康风险评估提供技术支撑,从而为事故应急预案的制定、应急响应和应急救援提供科学依据。

Objective To evaluate the public health risks of the Chongqing Kaixian blowout accident by using the health risk assessment method established in this study.Methods On the basis of the generally used four-step evaluation process,combined with the accident characteristics and the related research results,the health risk assessment method of accidental leakage of hazardous chemicals was established.The characteristics and the intensity of the health damage effects caused by H2S were obtained from the pollutant characteristics database.The total exposures were calculated by real-time pollutant concentrations.The probability of health injury was estimated by combining the threshold method with the probability equation method.The number of casualties was calculated by combing with the demographic information.Results The actual total casualties of Xiaoyang and Gaowang villages were 212.The evaluated number of death was 364 by using the parameter of center for chemical process safety,American institute of chemical engineers,and 176 by using the parameter of the Netherlands organization for applied scientific research.The relative error between the evaluated results and the actual consequences was 71.7% and 17.0% respectively.Conclusion The risk of death caused by H2S can be predicted more accurately by using the parameters provided by the Netherlands organization for applied scientific research.The health risk assessment method of accidental leakage of hazardous chemicals can be used to provide useful information for emergency preparedness,emergency response and emergency relief.