兰州市大气PM10与呼吸系统疾病入院人数的时间序列研究

Relationship between PM10 and Hospital Admissions for Respiratory Diseases in Lanzhou

目的定量评价兰州市大气PM10对居民呼吸系统疾病每日入院人数的影响。方法采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因子等混杂因素的影响后,分析2001—2005年兰州市PM10与呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的暴露-反应关系,并按性别和年龄层建立模型。结果不同人群的呼吸系统疾病日入院人数相对危险度(RR)在最佳滞后天数(第4天)均有统计学意义。单污染模型中,当PM10日均浓度每升高1个四分位间距(IQR)时,总人群、男性和女性人群、老年人群(年龄≥65岁)、年龄<65岁人群日入院人数分别增加2.4%,2.5%,2.9%,3.5%,2.5%。结论 PM10浓度升高会引起呼吸系统疾病入院人数的增加,且均表现为滞后影响,而老年人群(年龄≥65岁)和女性人群对PM10浓度升高更敏感。

Objective To quantitatively analyze the effect of PM10 on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Lanzhou.Methods A semi-parametric generalized additive model（GAM） was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between ambient particulate matter pollution and daily respiratory hospital visits from 2001 to 2005 in Lanzhou after controlling long time trend,the ＂day of week＂ effect and confounding factors of meteorology.At the same time,the association for different sex groups was assessed.Results There was positive relationship for relative risk（RR） with 4-day delayed effect（lag4） on all crowds.In single-pollutant models,an IQR concentration increase in PM10 was associated with 2.4%,2.5%,2.9%,3.5% and 2.5% increase for all hospital visits,male,female,people over 65 years old and people under 65 years old.Conclusion An increase of PM10 concentration may lead to an increase in daily hospital admissions for respiratory diseases with delayed effects.Moreover,there is much closer association of an increase of PM10 concentration with people over 65 years and female.