Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型的临床应用

Clinical application of Gail model in the assessment of breast cancer risk

目的:探讨Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型的应用价值。方法:回顾性分析沈阳医学院沈洲医院69例乳腺癌患者及159例正常对照组的年龄、乳腺疾病史、家族史、初潮年龄、初产年龄、乳腺活检情况及种族的资料,应用Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型评估5年前的发病风险,并绘制ROC曲线及评价Gail模型作为诊断试验的价值。结果:病例组65例及对照组10例,经模型评估后提示有5年内乳腺癌发病高风险。Gail模型作为诊断试验的评价结果,其灵敏度为94.2%,特异度为93.7%,阳性预测值为86.7%,阴性预测值为97.4%。结论:Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型对乳腺癌发病高风险人群的预测价值较高,可作为高风险人群的乳腺癌筛查的工具。

Objective To explore the clinical value of Gail model in assessing breast cancer risk.Methods Retrospective analysis was performed in 69 breast cancer patients（experimental group） and 159 health volunteers（control group） from Shenzhou hospital of Shenyang Medical College.Age,history of breast diseases,family history of carcinoma,age of first menstruation,age of first brearing,history of breast biopsy and race were analyzed.Gail model for breast cancer risk assessment was used to calculate the risk of breast cancer before 5 years.Then the receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to determine the value of Gail model in diagnosis of breast cancer.Results Sixty-five patient in the experimental group and 10 healthy people in the control group showed high risk for breast cancer in 5 years by Gail model analysis.The sensitivity was 94.2%,the specificity was 93.7%,positive predictive value was 86.7%,and the negative predictive value was 97.4%.Conclusion Gail model for breast cancer risk assessment is sensitive in persons with high risk of breast cancer.It is useful in screening high risk breast cancer.