利他偏好是否导致博弈均衡的偏离——对蜈蚣博弈实验的解释

Whether Altruism Preference Causes Systematic Deviations? An Explanation to the Results of Centipede Game Experiments

将异质性利他偏好引入到博弈者的效用函数中,构建了基于心理效用的随机扰动的异质性利他模型来拟合蜈蚣博弈实验数据,研究结果发现,利他偏好是蜈蚣博弈实验结果与传统博弈论预测的纳什均衡结果产生系统性偏离的一个重要影响因素。本文建立的模型不仅能够解释蜈蚣博弈实验结果的所有定性特征,而且能从动态角度刻画异质性利他程度的变化对蜈蚣博弈各阶段"结束"的条件概率的影响。根据极大似然准则,该模型比已有的模型具有更好的拟合效果。

We introduce heterogeneous altruism preference into the utility function of the player,and construct randomized heterogeneous altruism model based on the psychological utility to fit the data of centipede game experiments.We find heterogeneous altruism preference causes the systematic deviations between outcomes observed in the centipede game experiments and Nash Equilibrium predicted by traditional game theory.It turns out that our model not only can explain all qualitative features,but also can describe the effects to implied conditional probability of end as degree of heterogeneous altruism change dynamically.Finally,according to likelihood,our model has a better fit than the previous models.