日食一厄尔尼诺系数及其应用

THE SOLAR ECLIPSE-EL NINO COEFFICIENTS AND ITS APPLICATION

通过比较本世纪以来的厄尔尼诺年和日食资料，发现了高纬（包括极区）日食与厄尔尼诺年之间存在着一定的因果关系。通过定义年日食一厄尔厄诺系数Ｒ１和累积日食一厄尔尼诺系数Ｒ２后，可以发现当某年的Ｒ１≥９或Ｒ２≥１０．５级时，则当年必为厄尔尼诺年，反之亦然．本文还提出了日食诱发厄尔尼诺现象的热一动力机制，并预测２０００年将是一个强厄尔尼诺年．

Through comparing the data of El Nina and solar eclipse, a determined causalitybetween El Nino phenomena and the solar eclipses is found. By defining the annualsolar eclipse-El Nino coefficient R and the accumulative solar eclipse-El NinoCoefficient R2, we found that once R1, 9 or R2, > 10 in a certain year there willcertainly be E1 Nino that year and vise versa. The years since 1948 inevitablyobserved this quantitative causality. The thermal-dynamic mechanism is advanced andsome results of prediction experiments are also given in this paper.