基于主观综合评判的作战仿真可信度评估方法研究

Research on a Credibility Evaluation Method for Warfare Simulation Based on the Subject Integrate Judgment

可信度是作战仿真的生命线,对作战仿真系统建设全生命周期进行校核、验证与确认(verification,validation and accreditation,VV&A)是确保其可信度的重要途径。合适的评估方法是进行可信度评估的前提条件。在全面分析与比较已有可信度评估方法基础上,针对作战仿真可信度评估中突出主题专家作用的特点,提出了一种基于主观综合评判的可信度评估方法,重点设计了基于专长权的主题专家权重定量计算方法。这些方法都被应用于"××作战仿真系统"的可信度评估工作中。实践表明,本文的研究对于作战仿真系统等复杂仿真系统的可信度评估非常有效。

The credibility is the lifeline for warfare simulation.To execute verification,validation and accreditation（VVA） is an important approach to insure the credibility of warfare simulation system all the life circle.A proper method is the precondition for credibility evaluation.On the basis of analysis and comparison with existing evaluation methods,the subject integrated judgment method was put forward,aiming at the characteristics of giving prominence to the function of subject matter expert（SME） in the credibility evaluation for warfare simulation.Furthermore,a method of quantitative weights calculating based on SME was designed as the focal part of the research.These methods were applied in credibility evaluation of the warfare simulation system.The practice shows that the research is highly effective for complex system simulation,such as warfare simulation system.